Two races separate Jimmie Johnson from his third consecutive Sprint Cup but before this happens he will have to stave off red hot Carl Edwards, winner of the last two Chase races, who shaved off 77 points of Johnson's 186 point lead at Texas last Sunday, as NASCAR heads west across I-10 for Sunday's Checker O'Reilly Auto Parts 500.

Gamblers should note that not only is Johnson the defending race winner, but he won the spring race as well. If you invest in manufacturer outcomes bear in mind that Chevrolet has won nine out of the past 10 races at Phoenix. Trend jumpers should pay attention to the fact that only once in 24 races has the pole-sitter won at Avondale; No. 24, Jeff Gordon, in 2007.

Who will win the Checker O'Reilly Auto Parts 500 Odds

Last weekend my pick to win the Dickies 500, Carl Edwards, gambled and managed to get 69 laps out of one tank of gas to best Jeff Gordon, and pull within 106 points of Chase leader Jimmie Johnson. Thanks to a tight car the No. 48 car found itself in 29th place and a lap back after 100 laps--this could have proved disastrous for Johnson, but since it was early enough in the race Johnson was able to make back to the lead lap and finish the race in 15th place; good enough to pick up 118 points to Edwards' 190 points.

Sunday's race is almost a must finish in the top-five for Johnson or he risks the chance of battling Edwards (or Biffle) at Homestead; a track Johnson has not fared well at in the past but where Edwards has done exceeding well. For Hendrick Motor Sports' Chad Knaus he'd rather see Johnson wrap-up his third Chase Cup on a track he has dominated than have to win (or lose) the Chase in Florida.

Granted Johnson did not have a great race in Texas, but I sort of expected that considering how large Johnson's lead was in the points standings combined with how well Edwards had raced in Atlanta. But now NASCAR is back to a one-mile track similar to New Hampshire - which Johnson almost won but didn't thanks to an incredible pass by Greg Biffle in the inaugural Chase race. Don't think Johnson hasn't forgotten that one!

Carl Edwards, meanwhile, is doing everything in his power to keep the Chase a snooze-fest for NASCAR fans. Edwards' has approached each race with a reckless win-or-go-home attitude and this has served him well as he has done just that-won. But I think he'll have a much harder time winning this weekend. Edwards has never won a Cup Series race at Phoenix and his three top-fives are belied by an average finish of 14.3 (including five top-10s).

After two emotional wins I see Edwards primed for a letdown on Sunday. Edwards' hope to win the Championship, other than winning at Phoenix, is to finish much higher up than Johnson this Sunday and then take it next week at Homestead. But that is a lot of "ifs". Especially when No. 99 is going against Johnson, who finds himself in a must win position. And over the past three years whenever Johnson has to win he does.

Pick! Jimmie Johnson, No. 48, (4/1)

Checker O'Reilly Auto Parts 500 Solid Gold Picks

Long Odds Value Pick

There is something about the Old Man that just makes you want to root for him no matter which team he drives. Martin is always a class act and while he doesn't win a lot these days he still brings it every race and sometimes it's fun to back age and experience. Here is why I like Martin as a longs odds value pick this Sunday. Martin has more top-five finishes at Phoenix than any other active driver with nine and is one of four active drivers to post better than a 10th place average finish. Martin's 9.2 average finish is better than Tony Stewart (9.8) but significantly behind Johnson's (6.0) and Jeff Gordon's (8.5). Martin has historically run well at Phoenix and in 23 races he has found the checkered flag once and finished second five times. The only time that Martin earned a DNF was his first year at Phoenix. Besides, he ran really well here in the spring race starting fourth and finishing fifth and in last year's Checker he finished sixth after starting 21st on the grid. For these reasons and despite the fact he is not in the Chase I am backing the No. 8 car on Sunday as my long odds value pick.

Pick! Mark Martin, No. 8, (25/1)

Checker O'Reilly Auto Parts 500 Odds
Sun, Nov 9th (3:30pm EST) Phoenix International Raceway, AZ

A.J. Allmendinger 100/1
Bill Elliott 100/1
Bobby Labonte 100/1
Brian Vickers 35/1
Carl Edwards 5/1
Casey Mears 100/1
Clint Bowyer 18/1
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 12/1
Dave Blaney 100/1
David Gilliland 100/1
David Ragan 30/1
David Reutimann 100/1
Denny Hamlin 8/1
Elliott Sadler 100/1
Greg Biffle 12/1
Jamie McMurray 50/1
Jeff Burton 18/1
Jeff Gordon 15/1
Jimmie Johnson 4/1
Joe Nemechek 100/1
Johnny Sauter 200/1
Juan Pablo Montoya 100/1
Kasey Kahne 30/1
Kevin Harvick 15/1
Ken Schrader 200/1
Kurt Busch 30/1
Kyle Busch 7/1
Kyle Petty 150/1
Marcos Ambrose 100/1
Mark Martin 25/1
Martin Truex Jr. 25/1
Matt Kenseth 18/1
Michael Waltrip 100/1
Paul Menard 100/1
Reed Sorenson 100/1
Regan Smith 100/1
Robby Gordon 100/1
Ryan Newman 40/1
Sam Hornish Jr. 100/1
Scott Riggs 100/1
Scott Speed100/1
Sterling Marlin 200/1
Tony Raines 100/1
Tony Stewart 12/1
Travis Kvapil 100/1