Final Preseason NFL Power Rankings
by Robert Ferringo - 08/30/2007
The kickoff to the National Football League's regular season is still over a week away but I thought it was time, once again, to bust out a version of Doc's Sports NFL Power Rankings. To the general public, preseason football may seem as enjoyable as watching your parents have sex. But for sharp gamblers this is a critical period for gathering information, testing your perspectives on certain players, coaches, new systems, and teams, and getting back in the routine of making selections against the oddsmakers each week. I have studied these teams diligently over the past three weeks now I'm here to share with all of my faithful readers the minutia that I uncovered while watching a replay of the Arizona-San Diego game for the seventh time.
The biggest changes in my rankings involve the Broncos and Bengals. I am completely off the Cincinnati bandwagon as far as Bounceback Teams are concerned, and the Broncos look slow and uninspired at this point in the season (or what I like to refer to as The Cutler Effect). As far as teams that have caught my eye, I would say that Washington, Green Bay, Oakland and Houston have all performed past the modest expectations that I know the general gambling public has placed on them.
Doc's Sports Power Rankings will be released on Wednesday or Thursday during the season and will be a weekly guide to tips, trends, traps, stats, buzz and bluster about each team heading into the weekend. Next week I'll have a slew of Week 1 stats, some systems, and a full range of injury, match-up and starter reports. It's usually a jolly good time so I hope you'll stop back. For now, here's what I got:
1) New England Patriots - Do not bet on this Patriots team like it's the same one that will be taking the field in December. What I mean by that is that when you bring in five new wide receivers it's going to take some time for them to get on the same page with Tom Brady. They're getting there, but there are still some things to be smoothed over.
2) San Diego Chargers - It's been business as usual for the Chargers through the preseason. Though I will say that facing Chicago in Week 1 will be a lot different than facing the NFC West pillows that they've met in the preseason. Also, Eric Weddle is going to be a star in this league. The guy is John Lynch, circa 1995.
3) Chicago Bears - To this point the Chicago defense appears to be fine under the tutelage of first-time defensive coordinator Bob Babich. I don't think we'll find out if he is more or less aggressive than Ron Rivera until the regular season begins, though. In the meantime, remember this name: Dusty Dvoracek. The Chicago DT is an absolute animal.
4) Baltimore Ravens - The offensive line is starting to be a real concern for Baltimore. They dumped veteran Keydrick Vincent, which tells me that rookie mauler Ben Grubbs is coming along at guard. But he is still a rookie. And Jon Ogden has been cleared to play but there's no guarantee that he'll be at full strength for the opener. Also, from what I hear, Mark Clayton's high ankle sprain is something that could be a recurring problem through the season.
5) Dallas Cowboys - Dallas has been as impressive as any team in the league this preseason. They still have an ego problem that is going to make them susceptible to The Upset, though. The defense has responded to Wade Phillips' aggressive, blitzing style. But that could leave their corners out to dry and right now they don't have a legit nickel back.
6) Indianapolis Colts - Edgerrin James averaged 2,200 yards and 18 touchdowns in his first two seasons as the Colts starting running back. I will be surprised if Joe Addai doesn't approach those numbers. Keep an eye on Bob Sanders. He had not one, but two offseason shoulder surgeries.
7) New Orleans Saints - By now you know that Drew Brees is 35-for-39 over his past three preseason games. But what you may not have known is that Marques Colston has a mysterious knee injury that could linger into the season. An MRI showed nothing structurally wrong, but he hasn't played in either of the past two exhibition games. Also, the DT rotation should be stronger this year, which will help them stop the run.
8) Jacksonville Jaguars - In 10 series against first-team defenses the Jacksonville offense has one touchdown, seven punts, and twice turned the ball over on downs. That doesn't inspire a lot of confidence in Byron Leftwich. Right now he is the only thing keeping this team out of my Top 5.
9) Pittsburgh Steelers - An unintended consequence of Pittsburgh's new style of offense is that it may expose the defense. Unlike a Tampa-2 scheme, the Steelers aren't built to be on the field for a long time. They like to attack and get off the field and then grind teams down with their running game. Pittsburgh has been in the Top 7 in the league in time of possession in five of the last six years. Not surprisingly, the one year they dropped out of the Top 10 was the one year they finished below .500.
10) Philadelphia Eagles - Jeremiah Trotter's release shouldn't be that surprising. He was essentially a one-down player that could only stop the run. And, as an Eagles fan friend of mine pointed out, he could only stop that rush if the runner was headed straight for him.
11) Seattle Seahawks - I really don't have much for you on the Seahawks. I think that their performance in the preseason speaks volumes about this team: they are still dominating at home (30-7 vs. Minnesota) and they are still incompetent on grass fields on the road (48-13 at Green Bay). Play them accordingly.
12) Carolina Panthers - Don't look now, but the Panthers' first team, offense and defense, has been outscored 55-17 in six quarters of work this preseason. Not good. The verdict is still very much out on the zone-blocking scheme that is so critical to how this offense performs this year.
13) Denver Broncos - Next to the Bengals, Denver has been one of the biggest droppers in my Power Rankings. The Rock has not been impressed at all. And the really bad news is that Ebby Ekuban was a crucial loss on that defensive line. They had a hard time generating a pass rush last year, and now minus him and the draft picks brought in specifically to address that issue (Jarvis Moss, Tim Crowder) the Broncos look to be even worse off now than they were at this point last year.
14) New York Jets - I'm starting to realize why the Pete Kendall Affair was such a big story around Jets camp this fall. He was the line's leader, and he was a mentor for then-rookies Nick Mangold and Brick Ferguson. I don't think either will be as good without him as the anchor. The Jets first team offense has mustered just seven points in 14 possessions and rookie left guard Jacob Bender has been getting manhandled.
15) Houston Texans - The Texans have been one of the more impressive teams to this point in the preseason, especially when you weigh the expectations. The glaring weakness is production from the front four. Their starters have managed just eight tackles, two QB pressures and one sack in their first three games. Keep an eye out for Jacoby Jones. The kid is a game breaker and may end up with the No. 2 wideout spot.
16) Green Bay Packers - All that buzz you're hearing about the Packers defense is well deserved. Green Bay is another team that is struggling with a zone-blocking scheme. It doesn't help that their already thin running back corps has been further decimated by injuries, but they're averaging just 3.5 yards per rush and have only one run over 20 yards this preseason.
17) Washington Redskins - I know that this is the Redskins' M.O., but I like their mojo right now. Their first team has slugged it out with three physical AFC clubs this preseason and have not only avoided injuries, but managed to dish out a few licks of their own. The defense looks strong and I'm anticipating a bounceback year from Santana Moss.
18) St. Louis Rams - Not having Steven Jackson certainly makes a difference, but I would be a bit concerned about the fact that the St. Louis first-team offense has scored just three points in 11 series this preseason. However, they mustered just nine points in the same number of series last year and that worked out fine.
19) Cincinnati Bengals - I stand completely corrected about the Bungles this year. They are awful and their defense is again a total disaster. Willie Anderson's heel is shot, and he became the third Bengal in the last 16 months to say that his absence from the field was prolonged due to misdiagnosis by the Cincy medical staff. In what may be a related story, 20 different players didn't suit up against the Saints due to injury and 15 of them didn't play against Atlanta on Monday.
20) San Francisco 49ers - In what I thought was kind of an odd request, Mike Nolan wants first-year offensive coordinator Jim Hostetler in the booth during games while The Hoss wants to be on the sidelines. Basically, Nolan told him to go sit in the corner, as if he were some puppy. Hey, Nolan, don't hassle the Hoss. Rookie RT Joe Staley appears to be a keeper, and may end up starting over incumbent Kwame Harris.
21) Kansas City Chiefs - I have a pool going on which Larry Johnson body part is going to explode first. Right now the clubhouse leader is his left knee at 6/5 followed closely by his hamstring (3/1) and his ego (7/2). I was praying that Brodie Croyle would be under center in Week 2 when the Chiefs head to Chicago. Praying. I guess I'll have to settle for 33-7 instead of 52-3.
22) New York Giants - As you know by now, the Giants are getting racked with injuries for the second season in a row. David Tyree was a sizeable loss. The guy was a Pro Bowler as a special teamer and will be impossible to replace. But the most important injury to monitor is Plaxico Burress' back.
23) Oakland Raiders - Oakland's first team has outscored its opponents 34-16 in three preseason games this year. And before anyone gets too excited about Dante Culpepper, let's remember that most of his "success" this preseason has come against guys who will be back in the Arena League next week.
24) Miami Dolphins - I'm a little concerned to hear Cam Cameron saying that this team will "need" to bring in some guys after cuts are made around the league. But Cameron has been playing head games all training camp so I'm learning to take what he says with a grain of salt. The defense shouldn't drop off this year as much as I expect it to. They've been playing extremely well even without starters Jason Taylor, Zach Thomas and Joey Porter.
25) Tennessee Titans - I'm still not backing off my statement that the Titans are a team to fade this year, but I will say that they've looked exceptionally strong on defense. The addition of Corey Simon can't be considered a windfall, though, since we never really found out what happened to him in Indy. Also, Reynaldo Hill may have lost his starting corner spot to injury. Michael Griffin has been very good this preseason, which may bump Hill into the nickel slot after two years as a starter. That isn't a knock on Hill though; it simply shows how deep this secondary has become even without Pac Man.
26) Detroit Lions - There has been a lot of jawing back and forth between Kevin Jones and Tatum Bell in preseason. And no matter what comes out of this locker room, don't get seduced by the hype of a potentially strong offense. This is still not a good team.
27) Arizona Cardinals - Other than a sharper Matt Leinart, I really don't see any difference between this Cardinals team and any of the others over the past five years. They are still a joke of a team that has no idea what winning games is all about. And I think that The Edge averaging just 2.0 yards per carry is kind of a red flag.
28) Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Jeff Garcia has looked outstanding for the Bucs to this point. But this is a tough team to get a read on this early in the season. They haven't shown much improvement, but they haven't shown a ton of weakness to this point either.
29) Buffalo Bills - The Bills were already suffering a talent deficit before a rash of injuries decimated the defense. Now, they are stuck with one of the worst secondaries and one of the thinnest offensive lines in the league. Look for a lot - I mean a lot - of points in Buffalo games early in the season. I mean, Jason Webster was laughed out of Atlanta because he wasn't an NFL-level cover man. He's now the Bills' top corner.
30) Minnesota Vikings - Brad Childress announced that offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell will be calling the plays this year. Do you think this is a preemptive move by Childress, who knows that the offense is going to be horrendous, to avoid criticism by the fans and media? The right side of the offensive line is completely unsettled, and the receivers are still below average, but the Vikes are making progress.
31) Cleveland Browns - Five of Cleveland's first six games are against defenses that finished in the top 10 last year. I really don't think that Romeo wants to throw Brady Quinn to those wolves. Also, the Browns still aren't settled at running back behind Jamal Lewis and they don't have a No. 2 or No. 3 wide receiver. Oh, and three of their projected starters along the o-line will be either suspended or injured n their Week 1 game against Pittsburgh.
32) Atlanta Falcons - Do I really think that Atlanta is the worst team in the league right now? Probably not. But they get this dubious honor because right now I know they aren't going to win more than six games.
Questions or comments for Robert? E-mail him at robert@docsports.com or check out his Insider Page here.