The Best Baseball Betting Strategies and Systems

by Robert Ferringo - 6/29/2023

Baseball betting systems Kerry Carpenter Detroit Tigers

No matter what sport you're talking about, it can be devastating to lose a perfectly good wager by half a point, half a run, or half a goal. Whether it's a run or a point, a loss is a loss and that hook can be as lethal on the diamond as it is on the gridiron, pitch, hardwood or ice.

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What Is A Run Line?

Run line wagers - taking a team at -1.5 runs or +1.5 runs - are popular in baseball betting.

And every time you place one of those wagers that extra half a run is staring you in the face, taunting, teasing and daring you.

That's the whole point of a run line bet: that half-run is either going to destroy your hopes and dreams or get crushed at the hands of your diamond dominance.

The books set the lines. They have the power and it's always an uphill fight, like some Sisyphean trial, as we work our way to the summit of success.

Well, I've stumbled across a baseball betting system in which bettors can set their own line - and dictate their own payouts to a certain extent.

I'm about to show you how you can utilize this baseball betting system to destroy the -1.5 run line for good and create your own -1.0 run line.

The Most Effective Runline System

I'm not going to pretend that this baseball betting system is my creation.

The -1.0 run line is something I've come across while trolling around the Net.

I've managed some success with it in my career, so now I'm looking to pass it on.

It's a small, simple betting system but one that could have a noticeable impact on your bankroll.

Before they decided to take their ball and go home, Pinnacle used to offer a -1.0 run line in baseball.

But when the offshore book closed itself off to the American market, most bettors thought that they not only lost one of the most reliable and player-friendly books but that they also waved goodbye to this advantageous and lucrative run line.

Not true.

The catch is that if you want it you have to do a little work for it.

OK, so here is the general theory:

You take the $100.00 that you would have either bet on the money line or the traditional -1.5 run line. You're going to split that up into a money line bet and a traditional run line wager.

You use the formula below to figure out how much you need to bet on the money line.

You then bet the rest on the run line. Now, if your team wins by two runs you cash both bets and the next round is on you.

If your team loses then you lost your bet and would have lost it one way or another.

And, finally, if your team only wins by one run then you have earned yourself a ‘push’ on a game in which your regular money line bet would have lost.

(I know the info and formula that follows seems confusing at first. But I promise you, if you take some actual numbers from actual games and practice you can get the hang of it in about 20 or 30 minutes. Or you can just pay me to do it since I know what I’m doing! Ha!)

Money Line Wager Formula

Here is the specific formula that you have to create yourself a -1.0 run line and give yourself a true statistical advantage:

100/MONEYLINE = X
X + 1.0 = Y
100/Y = money line wager

OK, that formula (it's a lot easier than it looks, just take a pen and paper and practice a bit) calculates how much you're going to put on the money line.

Run Line Wager Formula

The next step is to figure out how much profit that money line bet will yield.

Your online book normally calculates that if you put the amount you want to risk in. If not, simply use this formula:

100/MONEYLINE = Z
Money line wager x Z = A
A = run line wager

Formulas in Practice

OK, so you've got your money line wager and now you've calculated your run line wager.

For simplicities sake, you're run line wager is going to be exactly the same as the amount you would win off your money line bet.

If I haven't completely confused you, here is an example of the theory in practice:

Let's say we wanted to work a -1.0 run line on the Los Angeles Angels against the Seattle Mariners and the Angels are -130 favorites with a -1.5 run line at +160. Here's what we'd be looking at:

100/130 = 0.769 (we use 130 because that's the money line)
0.769 + 1.0 = 1.769
100/1.769 = 56.53

That means 56.53 is our money line wager on the Angels at -130. That bet would yield a profit of 43.25. We then would place a bet of 43.25 on the Angels (-1.5) at +160. That bet would yield a profit of 69.20.

Your overall card would look like this:

Straight bet (Angels -130): bet 56.53 to win 43.25.
Run line bet (Angels -1.5, +160): bet 43.25 to win 69.20.
Total bet (Angels -1): bet 100 to win 112.45.

So now you're in a situation where if the Angels win by a run you're breaking even.

If they win by two or more runs you're getting $112 for every $100 you bet compared to the $77 you would have won for a straight bet at -130.

You've essentially turned a -130 favorite into a +112 wager.

A Safer Option for More Effective Betting

Now, I know you're probably thinking that if you believe the Angels are going to win by two runs or more (what it would take to make this bet pay out) then why not just play the straight run line wager and get $160 back for your $100 bet?

Well, that's a decent point and you should feel free to do that.

But the beauty of the -1.0 run line is that it eliminates bad beats if your team loses by a single run.

Gambling is all about risk management and, in my professional opinion and experience, using a -1.0 run line is an exceptional way to maximize profit while limiting exposure.

Somewhere between 20 percent and 30 percent of all MLB games are decided by one run.

By creating a -1.0 run line for yourself you may be reducing your odds on individual plays but overall you're limiting your exposure while also improving your long-term odds at a profit.

It may not get that stone to the top of the hill. But it should help get you a few steps closer.

This isn’t the only type of baseball betting system or formula that can work to help bettors make money.

Baseball Betting System

“When betting on Major League Baseball it’s imperative to search for buy-low opportunities to maximize potential return,”

August Young said. “Baseball is such a variant driven sport with a lot of randomness involved. Taking advantage of incorrect bias or oddsmakers over-adjustments can be the key to unlocking a profitable season.

“One system I like to follow is betting underdogs on long losing streaks versus a team on a long winning streak.

For example, dating back to 2005, underdogs that have lost at least seven games straight vs. a winning team that have won at least seven games have produced a +4.1% ROI on the blind.

This makes sense as the “better” team isn’t always going to win due to the natural variance mentioned above. We utilize market highs and lows to take advantage by getting an inflated price on the undervalued underdog. This is a solid tool to keep in your MLB betting arsenal.”

MLB Betting System

“The average bettor stays away from betting on bad teams,” Scott Spreitzer said. “While that's a wise move for the most part, there are times when betting on MLB's worst teams is worth it.

We're all about finding value and when teams playing .400 or worse baseball are off a win that followed a loss, the value is at its greatest.

That's because the average bettor doesn't believe those teams are capable of winning two in a row, so the books inflate the opposing team's price. Having said that, these bad teams have been a money-maker in this spot for nearly 20 years.”

“When teams playing .400 or worse baseball are off a win that followed a loss, the value is at its greatest. “

Baseball Betting Formula

“I have long been a proponent of betting systems in all sports,” Doug Upstone said. “The beauty of systems is not how a particular team is trending, rather, a system is a specific set of parameters and a team either fits it or it doesn’t in a positive or negative way.

“I tend to look for systems that win 75 percent or more of the time over at least a five-year period, which shows it is a proven commodity. They also need to have similar percentages in the last year or two and not be going in the wrong direction for bettors. Here is one example: Play On home teams after allowing two runs or less in two straight games, against an opponent after a combined score of 15 runs or more. (35-9 between 2019-2023).”

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